Sunday, September 25, 2016

Risk Assessment for Food Safety – II

Growing Concerns of Food Safety 
As a further consequence, the safety of our food is being increasingly scrutinized and questioned by the public, as food-borne illnesses are significant, costly, and a global problem. There continue to be differences of opinion on how to improve food safety, where industry lacks an integrated and holistic strategy for implementation of food safety in developed world as well as much of the world. Even though, we acknowledge some success in controlling and ameliorating food-borne illnesses and food contamination, these achievements are uneven, often transitory, and especially difficult. Ensuring a safe food supply will likely demand new levels of collaboration, understanding, and thinking. The application of potential solutions is to be viewed and delivered more holistically and with an emphasis on prevention is a compelling and timely strategy.

Thus continuing from the last week’s stop, it is basically needs following segments for better understanding of the subject. However, risk assessments are basically carryout for other requirements are slightly deviated from other assessments, i.e. risk assessment for ISO 9001:2015 due to the importance of food safety hazards which bit different in nature and complex in assessment. Sometimes, risk assessments lead to change composition of the food or way it was prepared due to the risk assessment’s outcome. Thus following topics are necessary to understand in-depth to better cater with continuously upgrading dynamics of food safety in the market.   

Hazard Identification
For each of the hazard: product pairings you identified in a table, you now look for:
Links with confirmed food-borne illnesses both in your country and in importing countries; search the published literature and any national health statistics;
International food-borne disease outbreaks;
Recalls monitored by food authorities in importing countries.

When you put all this information together you will have some idea of the food safety relevance of the hazard: product pairing. At this stage you will be in a position to verify whether a particular hazard: product pairing is sufficiently important to remain in the risk profile. If it has not caused any problems, then you can use your resources more accurately on other pairings. For example, you may decide not to include parasitic worms in your risk profile because all finfish you export are frozen fillets and freezing kills the parasites. In other words, there are critical control points (freezing and frozen storage) that eliminate the hazard and, with it, the risk. This will get you started on your risk profiles but you should update the information by searching the sources recommended above.

Hazard Characterization
Hazard characterization is composed of inter-relationships, which are summarized in this simple diagram

The three main areas for consideration – the pathogen/toxin, the host and the food matrix – all combine to make hazard characterization a very complex part of risk assessment. The simplest way of thinking about hazard characterization is to consider what happens whenever there is large-scale food poisoning. In general, only a proportion of consumers become ill, of whom a much smaller proportion may die.
Why doesn't everyone become ill and why do not all those affected die? The reasons are many and complex.

Exposure Assessment
For any component in our diet, exposure to a disease-causing agent (toxin or microorganism) in that component depends on three factors:
The level of the agent in the meal;
The amount we eat (serving size);
The frequency with which people consume that component.
Comparisons show a 500-times difference in potential exposure, based only on mass consumed. In fact, assessing exposure is rather more complicated because there are usually a large number of other factors to consider such as:
Frequency of contamination (prevalence) with toxin or pathogen;
Changes in level of contamination through the marketing chain;
Seasonal effects;
Consumption patterns;
Susceptibility of consumer;
Preparation effects.

There are examples of how to do the work needed under exposure assessment. This is the part of a risk assessment where you need to do much investigative work. The better the exposure assessment, the more valid will be your risk estimate. Availability of local data is very important for exposure assessment.

Risk Characterization
Risk characterizations use statistics to determine which hazard pose the highest risks. The numerical results represent an estimated probability, similar to the probability of a coin landing heads up (a one in two chance). The numbers help scientists and regulators, but the size and scale are often hard to relate to everyday life, while these numbers are slightly different from risk estimates, they add perspective to the scale of the risk numbers. On the other hand, personal habits and other factors can influence a person's actual risk.

In risk characterization, all previous information from hazard identification, exposure assessment and hazard characterization are brought together to give a picture of the risk. The picture is an estimate of how many people become ill, and how seriously ill they become, if a specific pathogen is in the product. This is called the risk estimate. If a qualitative risk assessment has been done, the risk estimate will be a simple statement that the risk is high or low or medium. If it is a quantitative risk assessment, the risk estimate will be a number, such as predicted illnesses per annum in the population, or the probability of becoming ill from eating a serving of the product. Do not forget that the main reason for doing risk assessments is so that risk managers can use the output – the risk estimates in the characterization. Therefore, the managers need to know whether there is uncertainty and variability in your estimate.

A good example of the effect these two properties are shown by the Lindqvist and Westöö (2000) study on smoked and gravid trout in Sweden. They estimated the number of annual cases by two dose response models. Method one predicted a mean of 168 cases and a range of 47–2 800 cases. Method two predicted a mean of 95 000 cases with a range of 34 000–1 600 000. The ranges reflect the uncertainty built into the predictions, and the authors list the data that should be collected to make more accurate predictions. Another output in the risk characterization that is invaluable for risk managers is a sensitivity analysis. This analysis ranks the influence that each parameter has on the risk. Some factors increase the likelihood of occurrence of illness while others decrease it. Lindqvist and Westöö found that the probability of becoming ill after eating smoked or gravid fish was most affected by:
            Level of contamination (number of L. monocytogenes on the product);

Prevalence of contamination (percentage of servings contaminated);
Serving size (the more you eat the more likely you are to become ill);
Proportion of virulent strains of L. monocytogenes.

These findings help the risk manager to focus on areas that should receive priority action. If the assessors identify uncertainty within these areas, the managers may decide to invest in studies to obtain better data and reduce the uncertainty.

Some risk assessments present the sensitivity analysis as a chart with bars representing the extent of the impact each parameter has on risk. A typical chart is shown below, and because of its shape it is usually called a “Tornado chart”; each bar refers to a particular property that is correlated either with increased or decreased risk.

Accuracy of Risk Estimates
Due to variables and unknown factors, it is impossible to accurately estimate risk. When available, data from human exposure is used to estimate risk. But in many cases, scientists do not have all of the details on actual exposures or how a hazard harms human health, where dose-response factors, or toxicity, are based on studies done on animals or cells, not actual human exposure are used. Furthermore, risk estimations sometimes use computer models to calculate the effects of hazard exposure when actual studies are not available. On the other hand, results between different studies are not always consistent. When this happens, you need to choose the most accurate and health-protective study, but you never should underestimate the real risk.

Reality check
Whether you do a qualitative or quantitative risk assessment you must do a reality check and compare your predictions of annual illness with statistics kept by country’s Health Department.

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